ANA beat VGK 4–3. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex Killorn scored on the power play at 17:58 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Carter Hart allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:43 | ANA | Beckett SenneckePP from Alex Killorn, Cutter Gauthier | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 10:22 |  VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 15:25 | ANA | Mikael Granlund from Jeffrey Viel | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 4:04 | VGK | Brett Howden from William Karlsson, Mitch Marner | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 17:58 | ANA | Alex KillornPP from Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 3:43 | ANA | Ian Moore from Cutter Gauthier, Olen Zellweger | 2–4 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 18:56 | VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel | 3–4 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 13:09 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brett Howden C | 16:43 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.06 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 18:32 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.08 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 22:10 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 14:56 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 7:20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:12 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.26 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 8:48 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:46 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 15:43 | −0.15 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 24:50 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 10:57 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:56 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:47 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Smith L | 10:55 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 24:08 | 3 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 19:09 | −0.33 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 17:05 | −0.45 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 57:43 | −1.73 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:29 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.02 | +0.78 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Ian Moore D | 8:27 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 20:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.02 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 15:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.00 | +0.62 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 12:39 | 3 | +0.23 | +0.21 | −0.38 | +0.39 | +0.01 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:01 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 26:53 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 11:39 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 11:52 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:48 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 15:00 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 16:17 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 16:33 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 12:56 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 11:25 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 12:59 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 21:39 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 26:11 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:53 | −0.27 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.