VGK beat ANA 6–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shea Theodore scored at 1:06 of the first, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 62%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:06 |  VGK | Shea Theodore from Jack Eichel, Mark Stone | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 12:13 | VGK | Brayden McNabbSH from Mitch Marner | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P1 19:55 | VGK | Mitch MarnerPP from Pavel Dorofeyev, Colton Sissons | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 9:19 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Shea Theodore, Brett Howden | 4–0 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 17:56 | VGK | Mitch Marner from William Karlsson, Ivan Barbashev | 5–0 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 6:30 |  ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Alex Killorn, Mikael Granlund | 5–1 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 15:09 | ANA | Chris Kreider from Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson | 5–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 18:04 | VGK | Brett HowdenEN unassisted | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 23:07 | 3 | 1 | +2.03 | +0.07 | +1.96 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.06 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 21:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.05 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Hertl C | 12:23 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 4:24 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 18:53 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 16:33 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 15:45 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:16 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 16:17 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:24 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 12:42 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 12:06 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 16:52 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.44 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Brett Howden C | 17:37 | 1 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| William Karlsson C | 19:20 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:31 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 20:59 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.05 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:00 | +0.51 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beckett Sennecke R | 15:34 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.04 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:09 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Washe C | 11:58 | +0.21 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:34 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:48 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 14:35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 12:18 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 15:49 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 21:02 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 11:28 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 18:06 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 20:20 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 22:49 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 15:55 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 11:01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:36 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 18:34 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 37:49 | +0.20 |
| Lukas Dostal G | 20:00 | −1.84 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.