ANA beat VGK 3–1. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Beckett Sennecke scored at 11:23 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Lukas Dostal saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:23 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Jeffrey Viel, Ryan Poehling | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 6:36 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Troy Terry, Chris Kreider | 2–0 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 16:30 | ANA | Jansen HarkinsEN unassisted | 3–0 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:54 |  VGK | Mark StonePP from Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore | 3–1 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beckett Sennecke R | 11:03 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.05 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 21:03 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| John Carlson D | 24:53 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:27 | +0.15 | +0.19 | −0.24 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 17:07 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 10:27 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 12:31 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 19:55 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 22:23 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 9:44 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:18 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 9:15 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:14 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 19:46 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 20:18 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 16:42 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 13:55 | −0.39 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:50 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | +1.41 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 17:35 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 12:18 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 19:05 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 22:25 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 11:31 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 11:03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 13:48 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 13:20 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:50 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:22 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 13:19 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 15:05 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 11:52 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:41 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 24:09 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 8:57 | −0.35 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 16:31 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:33 | −0.53 | +0.05 | −0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:36 | +1.08 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.