VGK beat ANA 3–1. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ivan Barbashev scored at 15:02 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Carter Hart saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:14 |  VGK | Brett Howden from Mitch Marner, Rasmus Andersson | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 13:57 |  ANA | Mikael Granlund from Jackson LaCombe, John Carlson | 1–1 | 13% → 49% |
| P3 15:02 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Pavel Dorofeyev | 1–2 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 19:54 | VGK | Mitch MarnerEN unassisted | 1–3 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:17 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.06 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:08 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:43 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Hinds D | 8:45 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 12:15 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 14:04 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:31 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 28:07 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 16:45 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 9:09 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 8:20 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 13:06 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:54 | −0.24 | +0.11 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:27 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:49 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 9:38 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 9:51 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 21:03 | −0.34 | +0.06 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 58:10 | +0.03 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Howden C | 14:45 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.13 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:04 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.07 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:46 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 18:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.22 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 14:10 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 13:14 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 11:09 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 8:47 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 25:48 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:57 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 25:09 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 10:47 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 10:04 | −0.27 | +0.11 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:47 | −0.33 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:39 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 11:52 | −0.43 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 13:39 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:46 | +2.07 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.