COL beat MIN 4–3 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brett Kulak scored at 3:52 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. COL won the series 4–1.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:34 |  MIN | Marcus Johansson from Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 11:03 | MIN | Nick Foligno from Nico Sturm, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 15:56 | MIN | Nick Foligno from Nico Sturm, Matt Boldy | 3–0 | 79% → 92% |
| P2 11:00 |  COL | Parker Kelly from Brent Burns, Brett Kulak | 3–1 | 5% → 15% |
| P3 16:27 | COL | Jack Drury from Devon Toews, Nicolas Roy | 3–2 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 18:37 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Martin Necas, Brent Burns | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 3:52 | COL | Brett Kulak from Martin Necas, Parker Kelly | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foligno L | 12:45 | 2 | +1.47 | −0.10 | +1.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:15 | 1 | +0.99 | −0.01 | +0.82 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 11:03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 9:03 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 12:54 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 17:31 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:36 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 30:35 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 11:59 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:34 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 10:13 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:57 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 32:06 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 21:55 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:48 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:34 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 13:08 | −0.45 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 22:55 | 2 | −0.46 | −0.18 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 63:21 | −0.61 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Kulak D | 27:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.09 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Parker Kelly C | 11:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:01 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.43 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jack Drury C | 12:02 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.05 | +0.52 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Cale Makar D | 25:50 | +0.42 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 30:23 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 19:19 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 16:17 | +0.09 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 9:42 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:56 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:30 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Ahcan D | 3:35 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 23:17 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.47 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 19:47 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 15:32 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 24:44 | −0.19 | +0.42 | −0.42 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:33 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ross Colton C | 13:05 | −0.42 | +0.04 | −0.46 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 43:14 | +0.21 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 20:00 | −1.57 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.