COL beat MIN 5–2. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Parker Kelly scored at 11:32 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 82%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:46 |  MIN | Danila YurovPP from Brock Faber, Vladimir Tarasenko | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 6:08 |  COL | Nazem KadriPP from Martin Necas | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 6:56 | COL | Ross Colton from Nicolas Roy | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 9:15 | MIN | Nico Sturm from Quinn Hughes | 2–2 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 11:32 | COL | Parker Kelly from Jack Drury | 3–2 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 19:27 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonEN from Martin Necas | 4–2 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:52 | COL | Brock NelsonEN unassisted | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Kelly C | 8:13 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.10 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 8:39 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.19 | +0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:13 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.08 | +0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 21:42 | +0.32 | +0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 28:25 | +0.31 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 26:09 | +0.26 | +0.39 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 9:00 | +0.25 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:32 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 19:47 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:48 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Jack Drury C | 8:46 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 17:00 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:20 | −0.03 | +0.33 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 14:39 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 10:29 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.22 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:23 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Ahcan D | 7:07 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 19:09 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +0.30 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Sturm C | 8:25 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.06 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 13:06 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.38 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 12:43 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 8:38 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 12:22 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 14:15 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 9:13 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:27 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:22 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 29:19 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 9:26 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 13:17 | −0.28 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 16:37 | −0.32 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 12:40 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 34:13 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.26 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:54 | −0.41 | −0.23 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 22:35 | −0.51 | −0.20 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 23:51 | −0.55 | −0.46 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 58:30 | +0.30 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.