MIN beat COL 5–1. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov scored at 15:11 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:11 |  MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:44 | MIN | Quinn HughesPP from Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov | 0–2 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 4:23 | MIN | Ryan HartmanPP from Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 13:11 |  COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Gabriel Landeskog, Nazem Kadri | 1–3 | 3% → 11% |
| P2 13:31 | MIN | Brock FaberPP from Vladimir Tarasenko, Michael McCarron | 1–4 | 90% → 97% |
| P3 19:56 | MIN | Matt BoldyEN from Brock Faber | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:51 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.07 | +0.42 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Ross Colton C | 8:08 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 8:47 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 8:06 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 7:54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:39 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 15:48 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 17:25 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:07 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 15:30 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 18:56 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 24:52 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 13:25 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 29:06 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 22:34 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 8:54 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:52 | −0.52 | −0.08 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:40 | 1 | −0.75 | +0.14 | −0.89 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 32:27 | +0.28 |
| Scott Wedgewood G | 24:23 | −1.56 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.12 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Hartman R | 21:14 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.05 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.63 | +0.12 | +0.32 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brock Faber D | 29:37 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.05 | +0.68 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Johansson L | 10:57 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 11:37 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 11:14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 14:34 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 14:26 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 8:45 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 17:36 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 13:18 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 20:27 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 14:23 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 9:01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 12:27 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 30:19 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.42 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:59 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.06 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 59:57 | +2.35 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.