COL beat MIN 5–2. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gabriel Landeskog scored on the power play at 8:24 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 54% to 70%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:51 |  COL | Martin Necas from Nathan MacKinnon, Brett Kulak | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 2:57 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 8:24 | COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 1:24 | COL | Nicolas Roy from Ross Colton, Brock Nelson | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 13:18 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Nazem Kadri, Gabriel Landeskog | 1–4 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 14:33 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Danila Yurov, Daemon Hunt | 2–4 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 19:55 | COL | Valeri NichushkinEN from Brett Kulak, Brent Burns | 2–5 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johansson L | 12:20 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.11 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:07 | +0.60 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:12 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.28 | +0.41 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 18:09 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 19:53 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 9:28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:56 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 12:43 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:24 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 10:04 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Daemon Hunt D | 13:04 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 28:31 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 9:42 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:57 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 15:48 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:04 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.17 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 11:25 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:21 | 1 | −0.88 | +0.18 | −0.84 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 57:08 | −1.62 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Roy C | 9:37 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.03 | +0.77 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Martin Necas C | 19:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.09 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:06 | 1 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.06 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 7:08 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:06 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:29 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 9:29 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 17:36 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 21:04 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 17:56 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 20:57 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 9:57 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 10:05 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 10:02 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:42 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.10 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:26 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 15:24 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.62 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +1.06 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.