COL beat MIN 9–6. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cale Makar scored at 3:21 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Jesper Wallstedt allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:12 |  COL | Sam Malinski from Martin Necas, Devon Toews | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:04 | COL | Jack Drury from Logan O'Connor | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 13:13 | COL | Artturi LehkonenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 0–3 | 84% → 91% |
| P1 15:02 |  MIN | Marcus Johansson unassisted | 1–3 | 8% → 16% |
| P1 16:04 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–3 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 4:16 | COL | Nick Blankenburg from Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar | 2–4 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 6:45 | MIN | Vladimir Tarasenko from Yakov Trenin, Michael McCarron | 3–4 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 12:43 | MIN | Quinn Hughes from Danila Yurov | 4–4 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:55 | MIN | Marcus FolignoSH unassisted | 5–4 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 18:04 | COL | Devon Toews from Valeri Nichushkin, Sam Malinski | 5–5 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 3:21 | COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog | 5–6 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 5:43 | COL | Nazem Kadri from Ross Colton, Devon Toews | 5–7 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 16:01 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes | 6–7 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 17:06 | COL | Cale Makar from Devon Toews, Martin Necas | 6–8 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 17:52 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonEN from Artturi Lehkonen | 6–9 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:57 | 1 | 2 | +0.94 | +0.06 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Johansson L | 13:35 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.13 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:45 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.07 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:25 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.11 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.09 | +0.28 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:38 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.07 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 14:22 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 16:42 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:46 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 12:03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 11:40 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 11:10 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:02 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 14:14 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 20:27 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 11:15 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 25:31 | −0.58 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 59:28 | −3.38 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 17:11 | 2 | 1 | +1.70 | −0.03 | +1.73 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Devon Toews D | 27:35 | 1 | 3 | +1.13 | +0.22 | +0.90 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sam Malinski D | 20:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.05 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Drury C | 12:28 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.10 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 10:06 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.15 | +0.35 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brent Burns D | 18:09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 10:23 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 10:05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:06 | 1 | 2 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.21 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brett Kulak D | 25:01 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:04 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 13:00 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 13:51 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Martin Necas C | 18:38 | 3 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 15:24 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:08 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.17 | −0.76 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 17:16 | −0.68 | −0.07 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | −3.22 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.