CAR beat PHI 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jackson Blake scored at 5:31 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. CAR won the series 4–0.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:50 | PHI | Tyson Foerster from Trevor Zegras, Porter Martone | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 12:35 |  CAR | Jackson Blake from K'Andre Miller, Taylor Hall | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 4:13 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Taylor Hall, Jackson Blake | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 5:52 | PHI | Alex Bump from Travis Konecny, Christian Dvorak | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 5:31 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Taylor Hall, Jaccob Slavin | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Blake R | 17:29 | 2 | 1 | +1.72 | +0.03 | +1.69 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:12 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.13 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:09 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 11:34 | +0.23 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 14:04 | +0.18 | +0.14 | −0.18 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 22:42 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 15:08 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:30 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 11:29 | +0.04 | +0.22 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:07 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.40 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 16:36 | 3 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.33 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:31 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 23:13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:18 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:57 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:17 | −0.41 | +0.10 | −0.51 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:26 | −0.58 | −0.02 | −0.37 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:05 | −0.72 | −0.14 | −0.41 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 65:19 | +0.06 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 19:20 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.00 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Bump L | 14:06 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.21 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 13:51 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.39 | −0.03 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 14:59 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 28:46 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:31 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:41 | −0.11 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:49 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 16:33 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 20:32 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:34 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 15:11 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bonk D | 12:36 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 24:35 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jett Luchanko C | 12:31 | −0.25 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 14:02 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 15:21 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Porter Martone R | 17:37 | 1 | −1.11 | −0.13 | −0.80 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 65:31 | +0.74 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.