CAR beat PHI 4–1. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jalen Chatfield scored short-handed at 15:59 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 46% to 70%. Frederik Andersen saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:27 |  CAR | Jordan StaalPP from Andrei Svechnikov, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 2:31 |  PHI | Trevor ZegrasPP from Emil Andrae, Porter Martone | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 15:59 | CAR | Jalen ChatfieldSH from Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook | 2–1 | 46% → 70% |
| P3 3:52 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Sebastian Aho, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–1 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 7:08 | CAR | Nikolaj Ehlers from Jordan Martinook, K'Andre Miller | 4–1 | 94% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 15:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.05 | +0.65 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.18 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:30 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.58 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 18:00 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 17:46 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:10 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:03 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 13:55 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:24 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:11 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:38 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:47 | −0.16 | +0.16 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 15:15 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:43 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 20:26 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 13:54 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 7:41 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +1.31 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras C | 16:28 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.57 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 16:17 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.26 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 10:59 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:41 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 15:42 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:36 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Bump L | 11:48 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.33 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:40 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.17 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 20:09 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Porter Martone R | 15:07 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 12:33 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:03 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 9:29 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 18:43 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:52 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 24:49 | −0.46 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 17:33 | −0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.58 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:30 | −0.65 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.58 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 59:54 | −0.87 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.