CAR beat PHI 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Taylor Hall scored at 18:54 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Frederik Andersen saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:02 | PHI | Jamie DrysdalePP unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:41 | PHI | Sean Couturier from Carl Grundstrom | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 10:21 |  CAR | Nikolaj EhlersPP from Jackson Blake, K'Andre Miller | 2–1 | 24% → 36% |
| P3 11:21 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Nikolaj Ehlers, Jordan Staal | 2–2 | 18% → 52% |
| OT 18:54 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Jackson Blake, Sean Walker | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Drysdale D | 29:12 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.04 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 24:51 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 22:04 | +0.09 | +0.26 | −0.53 | +0.39 | −0.03 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 16:27 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 23:36 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:54 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 13:45 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Bump L | 14:01 | −0.13 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 31:19 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.25 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 23:53 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 28:16 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 23:58 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Porter Martone R | 17:37 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 20:53 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Cam York D | 27:43 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:10 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 12:40 | −0.38 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 17:15 | −1.04 | −0.48 | −0.36 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 78:54 | +1.09 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 21:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.03 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Seth Jarvis R | 23:47 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.19 | +0.75 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 28:39 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.75 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 21:55 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.17 | +0.38 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Walker D | 23:27 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.74 | −0.28 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 12:17 | +0.25 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 19:08 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 22:26 | +0.00 | +0.28 | −0.51 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 25:18 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:41 | −0.05 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 27:14 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 29:07 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 21:12 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 23:31 | 2 | −0.31 | +0.22 | −0.54 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 14:21 | −0.41 | −0.36 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 23:05 | −0.50 | −0.52 | −0.17 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:53 | −0.53 | +0.26 | −0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 20:51 | −1.12 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.58 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 78:49 | +1.33 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.