CAR beat PHI 3–0. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Logan Stankoven scored at 1:31 of the first, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Frederik Andersen saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:31 |  CAR | Logan Stankoven from Mike Reilly, Jackson Blake | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:30 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Taylor Hall, Mike Reilly | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 16:16 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov | 0–3 | 90% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porter Martone R | 16:03 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 12:08 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 13:37 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 18:37 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 10:42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 13:15 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 19:48 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 21:13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 19:59 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:57 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:29 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Bump L | 12:43 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 16:31 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 15:13 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 15:51 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:29 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 15:42 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:31 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 55:12 | −1.02 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven C | 13:17 | 2 | +1.32 | +0.02 | +1.27 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 14:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.04 | +0.65 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| William Carrier L | 8:51 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:56 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:56 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 19:36 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:44 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 20:30 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 11:43 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 10:46 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 17:58 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:52 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 11:28 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:24 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:59 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:48 | −0.17 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:17 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +1.39 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.