MTL beat BUF 3–2 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Newhook scored at 11:22 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jakub Dobes saved 2.4 goals above expected. MTL won the series 4–3.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:30 |  MTL | Phillip Danault from Kaiden Guhle, Alexandre Texier | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:29 | MTL | Zachary BolducPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 13:19 |  BUF | Jordan Greenway from Mattias Samuelsson, Beck Malenstyn | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 6:27 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Owen Power, Ryan McLeod | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
| OT 11:22 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Alexandre Carrier | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook C | 19:52 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.15 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 9:11 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.05 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 17:16 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.28 | +0.75 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 1:52 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:52 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 4:45 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 27:03 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 8:58 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 22:19 | −0.22 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 22:33 | −0.28 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 26:30 | −0.30 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 23:07 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 29:30 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 31:17 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 31:28 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 17:51 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 21:16 | −0.69 | −0.09 | −0.61 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 17:10 | −0.78 | −0.26 | −0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 71:22 | +2.35 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 33:11 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.33 | +0.56 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:11 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 28:35 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 28:47 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.48 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 20:39 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.39 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:39 | +0.21 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 29:20 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:13 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:42 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 19:49 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 18:38 | −0.01 | +0.39 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 3:25 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 19:12 | −0.12 | +0.27 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 21:37 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:25 | −0.34 | +0.32 | −0.66 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 24:07 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Konsta Helenius C | 16:37 | −0.36 | +0.18 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 21:56 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 71:22 | −0.36 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.