BUF beat MTL 8–3. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jack Quinn scored on the power play at 10:54 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 69%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:32 |  BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Mattias Samuelsson, Zach Benson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:40 | MTL | Arber Xhekaj from Jake Evans | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 8:12 | MTL | Ivan DemidovPP from Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 10:14 | MTL | Jake EvansSH from Mike Matheson | 1–3 | 69% → 83% |
| P1 13:56 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Josh Norris, Jack Quinn | 2–3 | 16% → 29% |
| P2 1:00 | BUF | Zach Benson from Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram | 3–3 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 10:54 | BUF | Jack QuinnPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson | 4–3 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 12:59 | BUF | Konsta Helenius from Jason Zucker, Rasmus Dahlin | 5–3 | 69% → 86% |
| P3 9:58 | BUF | Jack QuinnPP from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin | 6–3 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 14:12 | BUF | Tage ThompsonEN unassisted | 7–3 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 17:49 | BUF | Zach MetsaPP from Ryan McLeod, Rasmus Dahlin | 8–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn R | 18:18 | 2 | 1 | +1.79 | +0.20 | +1.59 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 19:56 | 1 | 4 | +1.01 | +0.28 | +0.54 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jason Zucker L | 13:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.09 | +0.61 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Zach Metsa D | 12:19 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Konsta Helenius C | 12:36 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 20:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.29 | +0.15 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Owen Power D | 22:22 | +0.22 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:53 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 16:31 | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 21:56 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 8:22 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 8:15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 19:53 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 17:26 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 6:25 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 15:27 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.21 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:14 | 1 | 3 | −0.27 | +0.26 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:10 | −0.65 | +0.18 | −0.65 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 49:41 | +1.93 |
| Alex Lyon G | 10:14 | −2.53 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arber Xhekaj D | 7:12 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.93 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 16:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.12 | +0.82 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Ivan Demidov R | 17:14 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.07 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 22:05 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 9:59 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 13:39 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 24:28 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 20:59 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:04 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 16:32 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.25 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 25:22 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 11:24 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 16:01 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:46 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 12:06 | −0.44 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.08 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:20 | −0.45 | −0.09 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 17:32 | −0.47 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:03 | −0.55 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler G | 8:23 | −0.81 |
| Jakub Dobes G | 49:58 | −1.92 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.