MTL beat BUF 6–3. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Evans scored at 16:15 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:00 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Jack Quinn, Conor Timmins | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:31 |  MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 7:45 | BUF | Josh Doan from Owen Power | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 7:54 | MTL | Alexandre Texier from Alexandre Carrier, Phillip Danault | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 10:15 | BUF | Konsta Helenius from Mattias Samuelsson, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–3 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 8:01 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Lane Hutson, Phillip Danault | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 16:15 | MTL | Jake Evans from Ivan Demidov, Alex Newhook | 4–3 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 17:33 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Juraj Slafkovský, Lane Hutson | 5–3 | 72% → 88% |
| P3 3:32 | MTL | Ivan DemidovPP from Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki | 6–3 | 92% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Evans C | 17:50 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.16 | +0.81 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:29 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.16 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:27 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.16 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:45 | 1 | 2 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Ivan Demidov R | 14:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.17 | +0.24 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Cole Caufield R | 16:48 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.05 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 16:00 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:27 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 9:52 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 20:38 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 9:56 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:18 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 20:20 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 7:16 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 20:33 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 9:05 | −0.37 | +0.16 | −0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:17 | 3 | −0.58 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +1.05 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Doan R | 21:32 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.09 | +0.62 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 13:35 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Konsta Helenius C | 11:47 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.06 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 8:01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 21:04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 21:52 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 16:10 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.29 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 10:03 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 13:23 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 10:56 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 25:27 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 20:32 | −0.43 | +0.06 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 21:47 | −0.45 | −0.06 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:46 | −0.47 | −0.31 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 16:59 | −0.49 | −0.28 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:28 | 1 | −0.95 | −0.32 | −0.43 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 20:05 | −0.97 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.19 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 13:39 | −0.56 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 40:00 | −2.13 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.