BUF beat MTL 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 3.4, MTL 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Zach Benson scored on the power play at 4:41 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 49% to 75%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:32 |  BUF | Mattias Samuelsson from Josh Norris, Josh Doan | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:08 |  MTL | Alex Newhook from Jake Evans, Ivan Demidov | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 19:47 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Juraj Slafkovský, Lane Hutson | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 7:00 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Rasmus Dahlin | 2–2 | 28% → 48% |
| P3 4:41 | BUF | Zach BensonPP from Josh Doan, Tage Thompson | 3–2 | 49% → 75% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Benson L | 14:21 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.11 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.19 | +0.79 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:47 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.10 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:47 | +0.31 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 21:38 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 9:35 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 12:41 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Josh Doan R | 15:30 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Owen Power D | 23:43 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 12:14 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 7:04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 9:58 | −0.21 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:06 | −0.28 | +0.26 | −0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:52 | −0.33 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:58 | −0.34 | +0.12 | −0.47 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 19:29 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.21 | −0.17 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Konsta Helenius C | 12:53 | −0.42 | +0.11 | −0.55 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 20:42 | −0.45 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | +1.88 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 21:21 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.03 | +0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 15:16 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 6:42 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 14:26 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 9:39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 24:09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 3:46 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 28:02 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 8:51 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 18:45 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 14:42 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:59 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 12:47 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 22:01 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 24:34 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 16:35 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.39 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 17:00 | −0.47 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 23:10 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.01 | −0.60 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 57:17 | −0.07 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.