MTL beat BUF 6–2. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 3.6, MTL 3.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored on the power play at 6:05 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 54% to 73%. Jakub Dobes saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:53 |  BUF | Tage Thompson from Rasmus Dahlin | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:31 |  MTL | Alex Newhook from Jake Evans | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 6:05 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Lane Hutson, Ivan Demidov | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 10:43 | MTL | Zachary Bolduc from Joe Veleno, Alexandre Carrier | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 12:17 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield | 1–4 | 89% → 97% |
| P2 14:46 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Tage Thompson, Josh Doan | 2–4 | 3% → 10% |
| P3 8:46 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Alexandre Texier, Phillip Danault | 2–5 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 15:14 | MTL | Alex NewhookEN from Nick Suzuki, Jake Evans | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 21:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.10 | +0.60 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:15 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 19:42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 6:47 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 15:28 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 6:17 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 17:22 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 15:32 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.21 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 13:51 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 18:07 | −0.26 | +0.23 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:53 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 11:51 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 13:45 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:31 | −0.34 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 22:13 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:06 | −0.69 | −0.06 | −0.44 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 58:39 | −0.55 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 17:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.09 | +0.46 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:12 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.44 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 10:43 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +0.70 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 16:43 | 2 | +0.52 | −0.03 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 12:12 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.07 | +0.61 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 24:31 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 14:52 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:06 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 12:18 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.22 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:44 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.28 | +0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:38 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 17:48 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 20:35 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 17:45 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 7:10 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 13:12 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 14:39 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.46 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 15:26 | −0.69 | −0.07 | −0.62 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 59:53 | +1.86 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.