MTL beat BUF 5–1. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex Newhook scored at 1:36 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Jakub Dobes saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:36 |  MTL | Alex Newhook from Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:27 | MTL | Mike Matheson from Phillip Danault | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P2 4:47 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Jake Evans, Noah Dobson | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 19:22 |  BUF | Zach Benson from Conor Timmins, Josh Doan | 3–1 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 3:54 | MTL | Alexandre Carrier unassisted | 4–1 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 15:59 | MTL | Nick SuzukiEN from Josh Anderson | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook C | 16:46 | 2 | +1.29 | +0.03 | +1.28 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 26:46 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.01 | +0.90 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:37 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.05 | +0.81 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 20:54 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.18 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 13:18 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 14:33 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 12:02 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:56 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:21 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 11:18 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:02 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 16:20 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.29 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 17:06 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:32 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:32 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 9:32 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:29 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:03 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.63 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +1.58 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Benson L | 19:25 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.80 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 12:55 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.39 | +0.02 | ||
| Owen Power D | 20:18 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 7:11 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 11:08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:38 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 18:08 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:25 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 10:27 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:30 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 10:02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 21:27 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 19:47 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:17 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 17:39 | −0.36 | +0.06 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:19 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 16:28 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.02 | −0.39 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:17 | −0.59 | −0.05 | −0.35 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 58:13 | −1.21 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.