BUF beat MTL 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.6, BUF 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Josh Doan scored at 4:31 of the first, moving BUF’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Jakub Dobes allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:31 |  BUF | Josh Doan from Zach Benson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:26 | BUF | Ryan McLeodPP from Zach Benson, Josh Doan | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 19:16 |  MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Juraj Slafkovský, Ivan Demidov | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 3:32 | BUF | Jordan Greenway from Mattias Samuelsson | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 9:01 | BUF | Bowen ByramPP from Ryan McLeod | 1–4 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 16:31 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Zachary Bolduc | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Dach C | 9:46 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.06 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:02 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.50 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:49 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 7:42 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:45 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:46 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 8:53 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 8:33 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 21:00 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 11:44 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 24:09 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 19:08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 18:19 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 15:20 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 26:42 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:22 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 16:52 | −0.27 | +0.08 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:41 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.03 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 56:48 | −1.47 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen Byram D | 21:13 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.01 | +0.69 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:03 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.07 | +0.89 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.06 | +0.68 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Josh Doan R | 17:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.08 | +0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zach Benson L | 16:56 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 17:08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Owen Power D | 18:41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:35 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 12:52 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 19:39 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 14:15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:28 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 10:56 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 15:19 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 19:16 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:36 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:04 | −0.70 | +0.06 | −0.57 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 59:40 | +1.00 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.