ANA beat EDM 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.8, ANA 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Ryan Poehling scored at 9:56 of the first, moving ANA’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Connor Ingram allowed 1.0 goals more than expected. ANA won the series 4–2.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:56 |  ANA | Ryan Poehling from John Carlson, Cutter Gauthier | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:43 | ANA | Chris Kreider from Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 15:14 |  EDM | Connor Murphy from Josh Samanski, Colton Dach | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 16:50 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Jackson LaCombe, Mason McTavish | 1–3 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 19:13 | ANA | Troy Terry from Leo Carlsson, Chris Kreider | 1–4 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 1:13 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Kasperi Kapanen, Leon Draisaitl | 2–4 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 17:26 | ANA | Leo CarlssonEN from Chris Kreider, Troy Terry | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Murphy D | 20:33 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 18:46 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.05 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 13:09 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:25 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 6:21 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 11:07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 19:58 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 5:14 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 4:28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 16:22 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:49 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:01 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:11 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 19:49 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 14:26 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:51 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 15:57 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 24:49 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 56:31 | −1.00 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kreider L | 16:15 | 1 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.06 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 14:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Troy Terry R | 18:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Poehling C | 15:32 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.08 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Tim Washe C | 13:17 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 21:52 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 15:48 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 9:07 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 10:36 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tyson Hinds D | 10:01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:35 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 27:05 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 15:25 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:29 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 15:08 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 12:45 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:43 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:35 | 1 | 2 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | +0.38 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.