EDM beat ANA 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 2.2, EDM 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Vasily Podkolzin scored at 2:22 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Connor Ingram saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:22 |  EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:33 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 10:13 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 0–3 | 83% → 91% |
| P2 8:26 | ANA | Alex KillornPP from Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier | 1–3 | 4% → 12% |
| P2 10:24 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 1–4 | 89% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Killorn L | 15:24 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.04 | +0.61 | +0.39 | −0.02 | |
| Tim Washe C | 12:04 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 11:20 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:23 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 13:46 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 16:10 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 13:49 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 28:04 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 8:49 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 16:39 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 15:27 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 10:20 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 25:34 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:08 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:14 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:46 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:35 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 12:21 | −0.51 | +0.06 | −0.38 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 47:14 | +0.17 |
| Lukas Dostal G | 10:13 | −2.05 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:22 | 2 | +1.30 | +0.00 | +1.49 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 12:34 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.03 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:07 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.04 | +0.81 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 11:50 | +0.23 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 17:12 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:35 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:57 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 20:33 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 27:30 | 3 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 10:19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:19 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:29 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 10:20 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 9:15 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 16:38 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 9:11 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:18 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 24:09 | 2 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.63 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:00 | +1.38 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.