ANA beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Poehling scored at 2:29 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:38 |  EDM | Kasperi Kapanen from Jake Walman, Jason Dickinson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:32 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P2 7:36 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Jackson LaCombe, Alex Killorn | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 18:43 | ANA | Mikael GranlundPP from Leo Carlsson, John Carlson | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 3:27 | EDM | Evan BouchardPP from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 3–2 | 49% → 75% |
| P3 13:31 | ANA | Jeffrey Viel from John Carlson, Jackson LaCombe | 3–3 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 2:29 | ANA | Ryan Poehling from Mason McTavish | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:39 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 19:08 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.04 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.08 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 9:01 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 14:32 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 7:31 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 9:21 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:55 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 17:10 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 24:57 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 15:18 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:45 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:33 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 13:18 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 17:29 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 19:32 | 2 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 15:45 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 15:29 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 62:29 | −0.23 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Viel L | 12:08 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.08 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:09 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:37 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.04 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:25 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.04 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 9:26 | +0.13 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 8:51 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:46 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 12:25 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 16:36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 14:52 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 29:54 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.22 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Hinds D | 9:10 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 22:29 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 22:38 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.45 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 15:48 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 26:04 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 22:17 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 16:20 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.09 | −0.37 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 62:10 | −0.36 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.