ANA beat EDM 7–4. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Beckett Sennecke scored at 2:53 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Connor Ingram allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:12 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:18 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Drew Helleson, Tyson Hinds | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 17:45 | ANA | Mikael GranlundPP from Chris Kreider, Leo Carlsson | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 3:57 | EDM | Kasperi Kapanen from Leon Draisaitl, Connor Murphy | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 5:39 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 12:37 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Mikael Granlund, John Carlson | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 2:53 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Mikael Granlund | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 3:35 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Troy Terry | 3–5 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 8:36 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard | 4–5 | 5% → 18% |
| P3 16:57 | ANA | Jeffrey Viel from Tim Washe, Jackson LaCombe | 4–6 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 18:27 | ANA | Jackson LaCombeEN from Mikael Granlund | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:52 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.03 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:35 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.08 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:16 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.08 | +0.46 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.13 | +0.59 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 7:30 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 14:11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:52 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 9:37 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 11:42 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:10 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 21:41 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.20 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 21:46 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:48 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 15:28 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:16 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 9:14 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 16:10 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 16:15 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 59:24 | −2.52 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 18:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.20 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Mikael Granlund C | 17:13 | 1 | 3 | +0.73 | +0.17 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 10:05 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.87 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 18:50 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.13 | +0.54 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 14:26 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.10 | +0.34 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 16:46 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.22 | +0.39 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Hinds D | 9:23 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 26:30 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 26:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.33 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:27 | +0.15 | +0.27 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 19:12 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 8:38 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 23:05 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 22:36 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 10:43 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 9:12 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:16 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 11:09 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | −1.35 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.