ANA beat EDM 6–4. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 2.8, EDM 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cutter Gauthier scored at 15:08 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 49% to 87%. Connor Ingram allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:58 |  EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Vasily Podkolzin, Jake Walman | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:48 |  ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Alex Killorn | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 2:44 | ANA | Jacob Trouba from Jackson LaCombe, Troy Terry | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:35 | ANA | Alex KillornPP from Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe | 3–1 | 68% → 82% |
| P2 11:46 | EDM | Connor Murphy from Leon Draisaitl, Kasperi Kapanen | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 15:50 | ANA | Ryan PoehlingSH from Alex Killorn | 4–2 | 70% → 87% |
| P2 17:48 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 4–3 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 13:51 | EDM | Josh Samanski from Jack Roslovic, Matt Savoie | 4–4 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 15:08 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier unassisted | 5–4 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 18:50 | ANA | Ryan PoehlingEN from Jackson LaCombe | 6–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:51 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.04 | +0.92 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:55 | 2 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.15 | +1.32 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:10 | 2 | +0.67 | +0.05 | +0.79 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 16:14 | 1 | 2 | +0.37 | +0.12 | +0.28 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| John Carlson D | 24:00 | +0.26 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 11:58 | +0.18 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 23:31 | 3 | +0.10 | +0.29 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 12:57 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 13:01 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 16:57 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:30 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 10:43 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 7:52 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 16:11 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 10:38 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 10:49 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 23:30 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:53 | −0.51 | +0.09 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:20 | −0.16 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Murphy D | 19:54 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.08 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Samanski C | 11:11 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.04 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.07 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:04 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:14 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 10:35 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:24 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 9:15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 20:05 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 8:47 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 16:02 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 26:16 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:16 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 21:06 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 11:51 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 13:38 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:14 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.14 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 24:07 | −0.56 | +0.03 | −0.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 59:15 | −2.13 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.