EDM beat ANA 4–3. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kasperi Kapanen scored at 18:06 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 50% to 94%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:21 |  EDM | Jason Dickinson from Jake Walman, Ty Emberson | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 18:21 | EDM | Kasperi Kapanen from Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 0:19 |  ANA | Troy Terry from Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 4:38 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Troy Terry, Chris Kreider | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 14:29 | ANA | Troy TerryPP from John Carlson, Mikael Granlund | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P3 11:30 | EDM | Jason Dickinson from Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman | 3–3 | 18% → 52% |
| P3 18:06 | EDM | Kasperi Kapanen from Vasily Podkolzin, Leon Draisaitl | 3–4 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry R | 18:04 | 2 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.38 | +1.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chris Kreider L | 14:16 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.35 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| John Carlson D | 24:02 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 26:34 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:29 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 12:07 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 11:37 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 14:06 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 11:53 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 9:40 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 11:31 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 12:36 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 13:02 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 19:35 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:11 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 16:20 | −0.73 | −0.18 | −0.56 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:48 | −0.81 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.39 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 58:17 | −0.96 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Dickinson C | 12:01 | 2 | +1.34 | −0.13 | +1.49 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 18:00 | 2 | +1.31 | +0.12 | +1.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:00 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 21:36 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 8:33 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:20 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 10:20 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 2:56 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 26:36 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 8:40 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:06 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.22 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 14:16 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 24:50 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:56 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 18:04 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Walman D | 15:01 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:09 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:31 | −0.55 | −0.14 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:00 | +0.34 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.