VGK beat UTA 5–1. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 2.9, UTA 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brett Howden scored at 15:02 of the first, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Carter Hart saved 1.3 goals above expected. VGK won the series 4–2.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:02 |  VGK | Brett Howden from Mitch Marner, Mark Stone | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 19:15 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Ivan Barbashev, Noah Hanifin | 2–0 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 7:41 | UTA | Kailer Yamamoto from Mikhail Sergachev, MacKenzie Weegar | 2–1 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 9:39 | VGK | Colton Sissons from Brayden McNabb, Kaedan Korczak | 3–1 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 12:09 | VGK | Mitch MarnerPP from Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel | 4–1 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 16:24 | VGK | Cole SmithEN unassisted | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 17:19 | 2 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.20 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brett Howden C | 14:18 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.13 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 15:54 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.07 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:36 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 15:11 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 24:30 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 15:56 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 13:42 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 11:42 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:13 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:55 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 15:14 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.19 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 24:47 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.12 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 10:23 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 9:26 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:04 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.08 | −0.33 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:32 | +1.30 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 9:42 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.05 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 15:36 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 15:42 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:37 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:51 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 17:01 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 19:43 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:33 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 9:42 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:11 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 19:12 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:00 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:42 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 9:24 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:28 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:01 | −0.39 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.10 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 17:19 | −0.52 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:40 | −0.61 | −0.19 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 59:21 | −0.71 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.