VGK beat UTA 5–4 in overtime. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brett Howden scored short-handed at 5:28 of the second overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:11 |  UTA | John Marino from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 19:19 |  VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 10:40 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 15:37 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Shea Theodore, Ivan Barbashev | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:17 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Mark Stone | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 5:54 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Kailer Yamamoto, MacKenzie Weegar | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 12:42 | UTA | Michael Carcone from Alexander Kerfoot | 4–3 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 19:07 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Reilly Smith, Jack Eichel | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
| 2OT 5:28 | VGK | Brett HowdenSH from Mitch Marner | 4–5 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Marino D | 27:58 | 1 | +1.29 | +0.17 | +0.74 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 28:24 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.05 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 17:36 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.26 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 27:34 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.23 | +0.44 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 26:36 | +0.25 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 17:06 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.26 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 24:37 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:36 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 19:04 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 27:01 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 18:14 | −0.10 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 29:40 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.31 | −0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 12:49 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 30:46 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.29 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 19:11 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 37:35 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:22 | −0.52 | −0.04 | −0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 27:37 | −0.70 | +0.34 | −0.68 | −0.39 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 85:28 | −1.63 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 23:42 | 3 | +2.08 | −0.07 | +2.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 20:29 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.10 | +0.82 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 34:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.09 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden McNabb D | 27:56 | +0.33 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 24:27 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 19:52 | +0.16 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 14:24 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:56 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 17:32 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:19 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Cole Smith L | 15:47 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 25:47 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:55 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 34:07 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 34:29 | −0.68 | −0.47 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 30:48 | 1 | −0.68 | −0.09 | −0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 31:15 | 2 | −0.78 | +0.01 | −0.58 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 84:40 | −0.14 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.