VGK beat UTA 5–4 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shea Theodore scored at 19:08 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Carter Hart allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:12 |  VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 18:38 | VGK | Brett HowdenSH from Mitch Marner | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 3:26 | VGK | Cole Smith from Noah Hanifin, Colton Sissons | 3–0 | 81% → 94% |
| P2 8:04 |  UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Lawson Crouse, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–1 | 5% → 17% |
| P2 8:33 | UTA | Ian Cole from Sean Durzi | 3–2 | 16% → 32% |
| P3 1:45 | UTA | Michael Carcone from Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 5:10 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 10:25 | VGK | Brett Howden from Noah Hanifin, Jack Eichel | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 19:08 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Jack Eichel, Brett Howden | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Howden C | 22:12 | 2 | 1 | +1.80 | +0.25 | +1.50 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 18:07 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.10 | +0.48 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 33:52 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.31 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 17:11 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 23:05 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:55 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 27:38 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 19:03 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 27:39 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 11:39 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 29:04 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 16:48 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:59 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 29:22 | 3 | −0.14 | +0.29 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 17:38 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 24:10 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mark Stone R | 26:26 | −0.49 | +0.17 | −0.65 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 19:36 | −0.53 | +0.06 | −0.57 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 79:08 | −1.68 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carcone L | 15:07 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.04 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 21:33 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.41 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 27:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.36 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Clayton Keller R | 25:40 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.10 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 27:54 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 10:18 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 11:35 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 21:40 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 18:44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:52 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 27:29 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:11 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 30:32 | 3 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 20:47 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 28:56 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 24:34 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.47 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 27:58 | −0.49 | +0.11 | −0.31 | −0.19 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 79:08 | −1.10 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.