UTA beat VGK 4–2. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: MacKenzie Weegar scored at 12:59 of the first, moving UTA’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Carter Hart allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:59 |  UTA | MacKenzie Weegar from Liam O'Brien, Kailer Yamamoto | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:45 | UTA | Dylan GuentherPP from Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller | 0–2 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 4:06 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Nick Schmaltz, MacKenzie Weegar | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 9:48 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Clayton Keller | 0–4 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 13:20 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone | 1–4 | 1% → 3% |
| P3 16:52 | VGK | Nic Dowd from Reilly Smith, Cole Smith | 2–4 | 0% → 1% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Dowd C | 10:28 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.03 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 22:23 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.05 | +0.55 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Cole Smith L | 9:21 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 13:56 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 14:03 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 13:55 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:17 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 15:24 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 19:22 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:39 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:22 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:09 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 17:15 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:29 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:35 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:50 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 18:00 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:20 | −0.61 | +0.03 | −0.62 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 56:57 | −2.81 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse L | 19:17 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.00 | +1.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 19:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:22 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.04 | +0.57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 19:34 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 15:33 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 16:19 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Marino D | 20:49 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:26 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 6:09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 20:33 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 10:07 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 11:58 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:40 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 15:30 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:25 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:18 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 7:41 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:33 | −0.31 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +1.57 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.