UTA beat VGK 3–2. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Logan Cooley scored at 14:00 of the third, moving UTA’s win probability from 49% to 85%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:42 |  VGK | Mark StonePP from Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 16:59 |  UTA | MacKenzie Weegar unassisted | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 14:56 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Kailer Yamamoto | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 15:58 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Jack Eichel | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 14:00 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Dylan Guenther, Kailer Yamamoto | 3–2 | 49% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley C | 21:39 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.49 | +0.51 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:14 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.23 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 19:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.43 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Marino D | 19:24 | +0.37 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 10:15 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:08 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 17:34 | +0.20 | +0.26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:02 | +0.17 | +0.27 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 15:08 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:31 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 6:21 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:13 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:04 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 6:54 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:54 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 12:07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:19 | −0.21 | +0.18 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:01 | −0.86 | +0.12 | −0.79 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 59:30 | +0.16 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 21:25 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.29 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:36 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.24 | +0.59 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 9:23 | +0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 12:54 | +0.14 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:08 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 12:57 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 22:28 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 10:39 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 15:06 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:55 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:22 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 10:57 | −0.28 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:31 | −0.32 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 8:46 | −0.34 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:42 | −0.42 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 15:35 | −0.49 | −0.06 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 21:59 | −0.52 | −0.29 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 24:28 | 2 | −0.70 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 57:09 | +0.63 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.