VGK beat UTA 4–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nic Dowd scored at 7:20 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:49 |  UTA | Logan Cooley from Nate Schmidt, Lawson Crouse | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 3:44 |  VGK | Colton Sissons from Cole Smith, Brayden McNabb | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 5:07 | UTA | Kevin Stenlund from Sean Durzi, Ian Cole | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 5:33 | VGK | Mark StonePP from Tomas Hertl, Mitch Marner | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 7:20 | VGK | Nic Dowd from Noah Hanifin, Colton Sissons | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 18:21 | VGK | Ivan BarbashevEN from Noah Hanifin | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:24 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.08 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 19:59 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.07 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 15:04 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 9:06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 8:03 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:13 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 18:56 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 13:34 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 11:34 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:28 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 13:47 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:39 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:49 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:24 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:50 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:49 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 18:58 | −0.34 | +0.14 | −0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:56 | −0.42 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 58:38 | −0.63 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Sissons C | 13:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.12 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nic Dowd C | 10:33 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.08 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mark Stone R | 20:18 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.26 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:26 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:49 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:53 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:31 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 14:14 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:55 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 22:55 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 13:30 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 13:21 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.18 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 10:05 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 21:42 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 12:39 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 11:25 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 12:26 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:50 | +0.14 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.