MIN beat DAL 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 2.0, MIN 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Quinn Hughes scored at 10:38 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 84%. Jake Oettinger allowed 1.3 goals more than expected. MIN won the series 4–2.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:23 |  MIN | Quinn Hughes from Marcus Foligno, Nico Sturm | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 7:01 |  DAL | Wyatt JohnstonPP from Mikko Rantanen, Matt Duchene | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 16:08 | DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Michael Bunting, Ilya Lyubushkin | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 17:02 | MIN | Vladimir Tarasenko from Quinn Hughes | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 10:38 | MIN | Quinn Hughes from Brock Faber, Mats Zuccarello | 2–3 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 18:29 | MIN | Matt BoldyEN unassisted | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:45 | MIN | Matt BoldyEN unassisted | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavrik Bourque C | 15:09 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.16 | +0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 23:26 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.09 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 9:11 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 22:14 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:35 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 25:25 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 11:55 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 7:08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 13:55 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 11:46 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 11:52 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 14:32 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 7:12 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 24:45 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 28:01 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 15:35 | −0.35 | +0.19 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:46 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 19:03 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 57:30 | −1.27 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:55 | 2 | 1 | +1.67 | +0.06 | +1.61 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 11:01 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:11 | +0.23 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 19:26 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:37 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 29:53 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 8:59 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 11:41 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 11:15 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 7:13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 10:22 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:54 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:17 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:32 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:00 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 24:08 | 2 | −0.52 | −0.18 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 59:07 | +0.25 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.