MIN beat DAL 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.9, DAL 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matt Boldy scored on the power play at 19:28 of the second, moving MIN’s win probability from 49% to 72%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:51 |  MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Kirill Kaprizov, Ryan Hartman | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:58 |  DAL | Miro HeiskanenPP from Jason Robertson, Matt Duchene | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 19:28 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–1 | 49% → 72% |
| P3 7:47 | MIN | Michael McCarron from Yakov Trenin, Vladimir Tarasenko | 3–1 | 78% → 94% |
| P3 16:39 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Miro Heiskanen, Mikko Rantanen | 3–2 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 18:00 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovEN from Matt Boldy, Jake Middleton | 4–2 | 92% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:59 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.26 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 14:41 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 20:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.22 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Brock Faber D | 26:10 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:16 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 7:22 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:53 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 15:20 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 16:04 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:04 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:16 | −0.10 | +0.24 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 18:09 | 1 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.28 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Johansson L | 10:56 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:29 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 9:44 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:05 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 12:04 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:09 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 59:47 | +0.24 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Heiskanen D | 28:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.31 | +0.75 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jason Robertson L | 24:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Duchene C | 20:52 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 23:47 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 8:37 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 14:28 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 12:30 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 22:23 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arttu Hyry R | 3:34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:35 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 12:46 | −0.09 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 15:26 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 14:11 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 13:46 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:32 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 14:06 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 20:29 | −0.37 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:16 | −0.46 | −0.27 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 55:28 | +0.63 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.