MIN beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Boldy scored at 19:31 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:35 |  DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Matt Duchene, Mikko Rantanen | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:52 |  MIN | Brock Faber from Kirill Kaprizov, Ryan Hartman | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 19:25 | DAL | Miro HeiskanenPP from Matt Duchene, Mikko Rantanen | 2–1 | 49% → 72% |
| P3 14:40 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Nico Sturm, Brock Faber | 2–2 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 19:31 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Jared Spurgeon, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 25:13 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.08 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 13:26 | +0.32 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 33:33 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.23 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arttu Hyry R | 16:42 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 18:30 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 16:52 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:59 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Lian Bichsel D | 21:36 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 10:32 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 18:34 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 28:49 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 20:58 | −0.30 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 27:25 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 20:50 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 19:20 | −0.42 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 23:13 | 2 | −0.53 | −0.03 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 34:17 | −0.58 | −0.43 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 24:30 | −0.69 | −0.20 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 79:31 | +0.55 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Faber D | 35:47 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.26 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Boldy L | 29:52 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.24 | +0.61 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:31 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 37:21 | +0.21 | +0.42 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 23:34 | +0.19 | +0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 14:26 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 16:57 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 28:35 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.52 | −0.51 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 26:40 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:42 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 11:07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:24 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:54 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:32 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 28:44 | −0.14 | +0.18 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 15:34 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 23:43 | −0.51 | −0.11 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 24:12 | 1 | −0.58 | +0.30 | −0.69 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 79:31 | +1.29 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.