DAL beat MIN 4–3 in overtime. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Wyatt Johnston scored on the power play at 12:10 of the second overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:25 |  DAL | Mikko RantanenPP from Jason Robertson, Matt Duchene | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 13:48 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Matt Duchene | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 18:20 | MIN | Marcus JohanssonPP from Bobby Brink | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 5:00 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 17:25 | MIN | Michael McCarron from Nick Foligno, Jonas Brodin | 2–3 | 52% → 76% |
| P3 10:18 | DAL | Matt DuchenePP from Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| 2OT 12:10 | DAL | Wyatt JohnstonPP from Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 27:39 | 1 | 2 | +0.97 | +0.20 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 30:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 27:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.31 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Thomas Harley D | 29:23 | +0.28 | +0.40 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 23:06 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 19:38 | +0.24 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 18:52 | +0.23 | +0.21 | −0.18 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 29:05 | 1 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.23 | +0.17 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 43:05 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.28 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 22:58 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 19:15 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 17:53 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 22:27 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arttu Hyry R | 20:35 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 25:22 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 20:59 | −0.30 | +0.14 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 18:56 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 30:16 | −0.46 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 92:10 | −0.66 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 32:44 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.10 | +0.55 | +0.39 | +0.14 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 21:49 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.04 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 20:36 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.52 | +0.87 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 36:22 | +0.21 | +0.04 | −0.22 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 43:47 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 22:32 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 17:16 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 9:00 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 16:46 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brock Faber D | 38:56 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 15:02 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 23:22 | −0.37 | −0.23 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 33:30 | −0.42 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:23 | −0.45 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 34:44 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.33 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 28:41 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 24:46 | −0.78 | −0.00 | −0.28 | −0.39 | −0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 92:10 | −0.02 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.