DAL beat MIN 4–2. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Duchene scored on the power play at 4:02 of the second, moving DAL’s win probability from 54% to 72%. Jake Oettinger saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:58 |  DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Nils Lundkvist, Oskar Bäck | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:33 |  MIN | Brock Faber from Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 4:02 | DAL | Matt DuchenePP from Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P3 7:09 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Nils Lundkvist, Matt Duchene | 1–3 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 9:47 | MIN | Brock Faber from Joel Eriksson Ek, Quinn Hughes | 2–3 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 19:10 | DAL | Wyatt JohnstonEN from Justin Hryckowian, Esa Lindell | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Faber D | 26:42 | 2 | +1.42 | +0.07 | +1.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 12:52 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:43 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 3:02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 17:06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 12:27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 13:01 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:35 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 8:37 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:21 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 16:49 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:35 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.41 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 10:42 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:04 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 19:07 | −0.40 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:19 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 24:22 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.67 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:01 | −0.55 | −0.15 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 75:16 | −0.57 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 16:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.09 | +0.68 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jason Robertson L | 16:36 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.08 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 12:23 | +0.31 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 19:21 | 2 | +0.24 | −0.15 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 19:52 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:25 | 2 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Arttu Hyry R | 13:15 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 11:36 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 16:28 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 14:17 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 12:26 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 23:16 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 9:51 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 16:32 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 12:47 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 14:20 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:06 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:12 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 76:12 | +1.21 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.