MIN beat DAL 6–1. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Joel Eriksson Ek scored on the power play at 5:35 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:35 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:56 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 3:28 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes | 3–0 | 81% → 94% |
| P2 6:30 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek | 4–0 | 94% → 99% |
| P2 15:10 |  DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen | 4–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 8:13 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello | 5–1 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 16:52 | MIN | Matt BoldyEN unassisted | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:05 | 2 | 1 | +1.24 | +0.01 | +1.20 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 17:58 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.04 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Boldy L | 17:50 | 2 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:41 | 3 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 13:01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:36 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 24:30 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 15:29 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 24:35 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:40 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.16 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:45 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:36 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 10:51 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 19:35 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 12:14 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 10:22 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 60:00 | +2.60 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esa Lindell D | 21:18 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 19:56 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.04 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Hryckowian C | 13:00 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 15:41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 16:21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 10:20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 17:55 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 19:40 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:17 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 15:59 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 11:03 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 8:07 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 20:07 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.40 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 11:55 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 23:55 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:22 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.26 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 15:01 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 21:44 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.04 | −0.63 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 58:34 | −2.09 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.