COL beat LAK 5–1. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.3, LAK 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nicolas Roy scored at 3:13 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 74% to 91%. Anton Forsberg allowed 1.3 goals more than expected. COL won the series 4–0.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:13 |  COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Nazem Kadri, Gabriel Landeskog | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P2 5:48 | COL | Cale Makar unassisted | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 13:43 |  LAK | Joel Edmundson from Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 3:13 | COL | Nicolas Roy from Artturi Lehkonen, Sam Malinski | 3–1 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 6:01 | COL | Devon Toews from Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog | 4–1 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 14:22 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonEN from Martin Necas, Brett Kulak | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 23:17 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.03 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 20:50 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.07 | +0.90 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 13:29 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.10 | +0.76 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 17:47 | 2 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.04 | +0.51 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 20:28 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 14:38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 12:41 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 13:28 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 13:47 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 20:54 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:45 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 12:35 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 14:58 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:06 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 14:52 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 16:48 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +1.23 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Edmundson D | 17:08 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:30 | +0.18 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 13:38 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Wright R | 14:26 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.24 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:38 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 23:52 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:45 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 18:22 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 8:16 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 6:28 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:24 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 21:20 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 16:41 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:25 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Ward R | 5:20 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 20:36 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 20:46 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 17:10 | −0.61 | +0.15 | −0.71 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 59:50 | −1.35 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.