COL beat LAK 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.3, LAK 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cale Makar scored at 12:12 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Anton Forsberg allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:29 |  COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Nicolas Roy, Josh Manson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:55 |  LAK | Trevor Moore from Quinton Byfield, Alex Laferriere | 1–1 | 33% → 54% |
| P2 12:12 | COL | Cale Makar from Devon Toews, Artturi Lehkonen | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 7:39 | COL | Artturi LehkonenSH unassisted | 3–1 | 77% → 94% |
| P3 15:57 | LAK | Adrian KempePP from Artemi Panarin, Alex Laferriere | 3–2 | 1% → 12% |
| P3 17:42 | COL | Brock NelsonEN unassisted | 4–2 | 91% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 25:58 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.14 | +0.79 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 18:13 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.07 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nazem Kadri C | 14:07 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 17:29 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 18:40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 10:23 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 9:26 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 18:51 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 26:54 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:30 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:52 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 13:56 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 9:31 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 17:37 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 22:03 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 8:22 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 4:57 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +0.93 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Moore L | 19:06 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.13 | +0.66 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:08 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.09 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 17:32 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 6:55 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 22:51 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 16:24 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 18:35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 10:30 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:59 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 11:50 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 19:46 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:33 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Wright R | 8:39 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 16:46 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 15:02 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 8:10 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.51 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 20:57 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.05 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 23:21 | 2 | −0.79 | +0.04 | −0.85 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 57:56 | −1.16 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.