PHI beat PIT 1–0 in overtime. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cam York scored at 17:32 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Dan Vladar saved 3.5 goals above expected. PHI won the series 4–2.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 17:32 | PHI | Cam York from Matvei Michkov, Noah Cates | 0–1 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 29:54 | +0.32 | +0.34 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:42 | +0.29 | +0.44 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 36:22 | +0.24 | +0.41 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 25:46 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 18:15 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 21:04 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 7:48 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:09 | +0.08 | +0.29 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 22:10 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 17:22 | +0.03 | +0.32 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:39 | +0.02 | +0.47 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 30:46 | −0.00 | +0.35 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 18:39 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 15:41 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 20:17 | −0.08 | +0.26 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 22:17 | −0.26 | +0.22 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:21 | −0.43 | −0.13 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 19:28 | −0.48 | −0.09 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 77:32 | +2.71 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam York D | 28:34 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.40 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 16:50 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 18:47 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 14:46 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 20:18 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 19:35 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.26 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 23:03 | −0.25 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 31:20 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 20:33 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 16:10 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Porter Martone R | 21:09 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 29:59 | −0.43 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 20:59 | −0.46 | −0.22 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 21:48 | −0.49 | −0.06 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 30:12 | −0.54 | −0.43 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 16:43 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.32 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Bump L | 15:28 | −0.69 | −0.37 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 17:26 | 1 | −0.93 | −0.44 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 77:32 | +3.51 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.