PIT beat PHI 4–2. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sidney Crosby scored on the power play at 14:24 of the first, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 64%. Dan Vladar allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:24 |  PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Erik Karlsson | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P2 1:03 | PIT | Rickard Rakell unassisted | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 15:40 |  PHI | Denver Barkey from Trevor Zegras, Cam York | 2–1 | 13% → 30% |
| P3 4:27 | PIT | Kris Letang from Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 7:03 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Christian Dvorak, Travis Sanheim | 3–2 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 19:03 | PIT | Connor DewarEN from Blake Lizotte, Noel Acciari | 4–2 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang D | 23:19 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.17 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.12 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.12 | +0.41 | +0.19 | −0.05 |
| Samuel Girard D | 17:57 | +0.34 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 15:39 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:35 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 16:46 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 16:25 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ilya Solovyov D | 7:33 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 10:16 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 13:02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 15:15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 8:09 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:19 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 23:49 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 14:43 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:47 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.22 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 12:11 | −0.43 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 59:56 | +1.25 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Konecny R | 19:21 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.17 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 12:15 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.08 | +0.65 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 12:20 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 8:55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 26:59 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:36 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 16:42 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:44 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 14:35 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:45 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 14:10 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Cam York D | 20:14 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Porter Martone R | 18:13 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 11:18 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 26:09 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:43 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 10:50 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 19:51 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 58:15 | −1.33 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.