PHI beat PIT 5–2. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rasmus Ristolainen scored at 9:06 of the second, moving PHI’s win probability from 53% to 74%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:18 |  PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:18 |  PHI | Trevor ZegrasPP from Jamie Drysdale, Porter Martone | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 9:06 | PHI | Rasmus Ristolainen from Noah Juulsen, Sean Couturier | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 11:18 | PHI | Nick Seeler from Noah Juulsen, Sean Couturier | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P3 9:39 | PIT | Erik KarlssonPP from Rickard Rakell, Tommy Novak | 2–3 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 12:30 | PHI | Noah CatesPP from Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale | 2–4 | 86% → 97% |
| P3 18:48 | PHI | Owen TippettEN from Noah Cates | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:06 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.02 | +0.71 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:59 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.08 | +0.81 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 13:07 | +0.35 | +0.12 | −0.13 | +0.39 | −0.03 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 10:37 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 17:59 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 22:08 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 24:34 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Brazeau R | 8:24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:00 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.34 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:32 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 13:20 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 9:33 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 19:37 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 12:42 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 10:27 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 11:58 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 12:28 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 20:25 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 58:01 | −0.87 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 24:33 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 15:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.12 | +0.67 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Nick Seeler D | 16:08 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.85 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 13:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.03 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Travis Konecny R | 16:28 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 20:01 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:08 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 14:41 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 6:46 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 12:29 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 14:17 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:02 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 18:05 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:13 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 8:08 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Porter Martone R | 16:30 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.22 | −0.30 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:29 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.26 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 16:37 | 2 | −0.75 | +0.02 | −0.42 | −0.39 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 60:00 | +0.64 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.