CAR beat OTT 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 3.5, OTT 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Logan Stankoven scored on the power play at 9:10 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 49% to 79%. Frederik Andersen saved 1.8 goals above expected. CAR won the series 4–0.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 15:15 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Mark Jankowski, Eric Robinson | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 17:08 |  OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Tim Stützle, Carter Yakemchuk | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 9:10 | CAR | Logan StankovenPP from K'Andre Miller, Taylor Hall | 2–1 | 49% → 79% |
| P3 17:38 | CAR | Sebastian AhoEN from Seth Jarvis, Sean Walker | 3–1 | 91% → 100% |
| P3 18:11 | OTT | Dylan CozensPP from Drake Batherson, Carter Yakemchuk | 3–2 | 0% → 7% |
| P3 18:45 | CAR | Sebastian AhoEN from Seth Jarvis, Jalen Chatfield | 4–2 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:37 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.18 | +0.48 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 13:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.22 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:16 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 23:51 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 17:45 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:24 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:47 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 5:16 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 17:27 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:28 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 26:22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:03 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:27 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.13 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 3:09 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 6:38 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.05 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:15 | −0.42 | +0.14 | −0.36 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 18:40 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.58 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 19:17 | −0.70 | +0.18 | −0.61 | −0.19 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 59:49 | +1.80 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:23 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 20:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.19 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Kleven D | 19:40 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 12:15 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 7:06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:50 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 20:37 | −0.08 | −0.38 | −0.12 | +0.39 | +0.03 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 8:32 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 5:47 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 7:18 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 25:57 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.13 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 27:17 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 23:16 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 16:01 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 9:37 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Yakemchuk D | 19:34 | 2 | −0.44 | −0.12 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 17:00 | −0.46 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 17:24 | −1.04 | −0.01 | −1.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 58:01 | +1.12 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.