CAR beat OTT 2–1. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jackson Blake scored at 17:29 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 47% to 71%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:13 |  CAR | Logan Stankoven from Taylor Hall, Eric Robinson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 16:06 |  OTT | Drake Batherson from Nick Cousins | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 17:29 | CAR | Jackson Blake from K'Andre Miller, Taylor Hall | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Blake R | 16:01 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.14 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:10 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.16 | +0.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:33 | +0.36 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:58 | +0.22 | +0.36 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 14:57 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:23 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:38 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:58 | +0.04 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:43 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 7:33 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 7:47 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:37 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.23 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:06 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:36 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 18:49 | −0.27 | +0.08 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 14:54 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.17 | −0.31 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +0.72 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 19:40 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.41 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 20:29 | +0.24 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 13:19 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 19:21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 7:32 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 15:04 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 15:29 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cameron Crotty D | 8:59 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 13:40 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 18:08 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 8:28 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 7:32 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 18:13 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 18:44 | −0.27 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 29:41 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 23:57 | −0.50 | −0.38 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:16 | −0.53 | −0.10 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:27 | −0.78 | −0.27 | −0.33 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 58:01 | +0.93 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.