CAR beat OTT 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.9 to 4.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Martinook scored at 13:53 of the second overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Linus Ullmark saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:31 |  CAR | Logan StankovenPP from Taylor Hall, Jackson Blake | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 7:50 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Jordan Staal | 0–2 | 72% → 88% |
| P2 10:47 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Jake Sanderson | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 16:40 | OTT | Dylan Cozens from Ridly Greig, Jake Sanderson | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| 2OT 13:53 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Nikolaj Ehlers, K'Andre Miller | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 27:33 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.13 | +0.70 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 27:25 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.24 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 39:01 | +0.22 | +0.41 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 40:50 | +0.18 | +0.34 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 15:04 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 15:27 | +0.10 | +0.22 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 21:34 | +0.06 | +0.21 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 15:24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lassi Thomson D | 13:01 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 12:24 | −0.17 | +0.19 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 31:03 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 29:05 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 27:09 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.41 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 28:17 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 24:43 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 43:06 | 2 | −0.59 | −0.49 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 27:04 | −0.60 | −0.39 | −0.43 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 28:17 | −0.78 | −0.08 | −0.56 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 93:34 | +2.60 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Martinook L | 25:37 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.55 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 27:03 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.35 | +0.63 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 27:22 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.85 | −0.61 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 24:20 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.50 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 33:16 | +0.07 | +0.30 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 31:10 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 34:56 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 33:52 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 16:03 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 24:26 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| William Carrier L | 15:37 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 28:19 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:48 | −0.25 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 24:59 | −0.34 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 25:08 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.14 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 21:56 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.59 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 26:04 | −0.62 | −0.31 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 25:49 | −1.40 | −0.48 | −0.54 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 93:33 | +2.10 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.