CAR beat OTT 2–0. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Logan Stankoven scored at 2:11 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Frederik Andersen saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:11 |  CAR | Logan Stankoven from Jackson Blake, Taylor Hall | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 7:15 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake | 0–2 | 81% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 7:09 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 23:40 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 7:44 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 26:39 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 14:47 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 9:48 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 15:07 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:58 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 18:15 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:13 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.53 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 23:05 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 17:08 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 11:26 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:49 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:41 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 27:25 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 8:26 | −0.42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 16:51 | −0.59 | −0.09 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 56:49 | +1.73 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Hall L | 15:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.29 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Eric Robinson L | 7:24 | +0.42 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 17:31 | +0.37 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.28 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:38 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 16:15 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:13 | +0.07 | +0.22 | −0.34 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:06 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:52 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:37 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| William Carrier L | 6:51 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 21:04 | −0.02 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:27 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:40 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 17:42 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 17:59 | −0.29 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:20 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:36 | −0.93 | +0.03 | −0.96 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +2.21 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.