BUF beat BOS 4–1. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Zach Benson scored at 5:58 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 76% to 93%. BUF won the series 4–2.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:25 |  BUF | Alex Tuch from Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:26 | BUF | Mattias Samuelsson from Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 1:54 |  BOS | David Pastrnak from Pavel Zacha, Hampus Lindholm | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P3 5:58 | BUF | Zach Benson from Josh Doan | 3–1 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 16:40 | BUF | Josh NorrisEN from Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Benson | 4–1 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Benson L | 16:47 | 1 | 1 | +1.32 | +0.03 | +0.72 | +0.58 | −0.01 |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:36 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.02 | +0.89 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 20:36 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.10 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:58 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 18:39 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 10:58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 11:01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 4:25 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 13:52 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:38 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Owen Power D | 21:24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 24:05 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 16:45 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 15:25 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:48 | 2 | −0.51 | +0.03 | −0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 21:54 | 2 | −0.52 | +0.05 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Josh Doan R | 15:51 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.01 | −0.56 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 59:42 | +0.70 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 18:35 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.05 | +0.56 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 21:52 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 14:12 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 25:09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:22 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 20:04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:21 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 9:40 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 15:15 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 9:40 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 14:59 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:24 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 12:46 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 23:13 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:57 | −0.21 | +0.18 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 15:00 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:48 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 11:04 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 58:08 | −0.39 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.