BOS beat BUF 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 3.4, BUF 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: David Pastrnak scored at 9:14 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jeremy Swayman saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:35 |  BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Jason Zucker, Tage Thompson | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 9:24 |  BOS | Elias Lindholm unassisted | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| OT 9:14 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Hampus Lindholm | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 25:15 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.51 | +0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:01 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 24:19 | +0.40 | +0.48 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 26:24 | +0.12 | +0.29 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 20:51 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:46 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:53 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 22:52 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 21:30 | −0.11 | +0.26 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:30 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 17:27 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 11:50 | −0.20 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:25 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 13:23 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 23:11 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 16:50 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 11:25 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 69:14 | +1.66 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 29:01 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.39 | +0.59 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 14:51 | +0.23 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 15:40 | +0.22 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 14:30 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.29 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:25 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 16:55 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 17:08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 26:13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:29 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 20:40 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 24:30 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Owen Power D | 23:21 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 24:28 | −0.29 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 21:18 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 2:55 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 23:23 | −0.41 | −0.29 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 17:29 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 23:54 | −0.54 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 69:14 | +0.90 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.