BUF beat BOS 6–1. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Peyton Krebs scored at 4:17 of the first, moving BUF’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Jeremy Swayman allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:17 |  BUF | Peyton Krebs from Alex Tuch | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:10 | BUF | Josh Doan from Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P1 9:15 | BUF | Zach Benson from Josh Doan | 3–0 | 77% → 90% |
| P1 14:24 | BUF | Bowen Byram from Owen Power, Jack Quinn | 4–0 | 91% → 99% |
| P3 5:08 | BUF | Beck Malenstyn from Jordan Greenway, Tyson Kozak | 5–0 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 6:32 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Tage Thompson, Peyton Krebs | 6–0 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:20 |  BOS | Sean KuralySH from Mark Kastelic, Andrew Peeke | 6–1 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen Byram D | 22:59 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.18 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 13:24 | 1 | +0.99 | −0.01 | +0.82 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Doan R | 12:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.05 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.09 | +0.59 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Zach Benson L | 13:25 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.04 | +0.45 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Owen Power D | 20:14 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:12 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 17:10 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 17:55 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 17:19 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 16:21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 13:26 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 15:58 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:56 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:18 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:26 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 10:59 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:00 | +0.97 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Kuraly C | 15:59 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.08 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 18:06 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 12:46 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 13:51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 3:13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 14:34 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 14:42 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 16:21 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 16:15 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 13:37 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 19:15 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 22:32 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:37 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 15:41 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:23 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 14:53 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:38 | −0.45 | −0.06 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:20 | −0.57 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 13:19 | +0.63 |
| Jeremy Swayman G | 46:41 | −2.97 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.